Addis Ababa, August 19, 2026 (FMC) — Ethiopia’s planned additional cascade dams on the Abay (Blue Nile) River could bring greater water security and economic benefits to Sudan rather than pose a threat to downstream countries, Sudanese international water expert and former Minister of Water Resources Prof. Seif al-Din Hamad said.
Speaking on the Muqran al-Nilain program aired by Al-Nilain News Channel, Hamad said the key issue was not the existence of additional dams but ensuring that their initial filling and operation are managed through effective coordination among Nile Basin countries.
He said cascade dam systems, when properly designed and managed as an integrated system, can regulate river flows, reduce flood risks and provide more predictable water supplies downstream.
Drawing on international experience, Hamad said a series of coordinated dams can help manage seasonal variations in river flows and improve the reliability of water resources.
He said properly coordinated cascade dams could provide significant benefits to Sudan by moderating the highly seasonal flows of the Abay. Instead of receiving exceptionally high volumes during the rainy season followed by substantially lower flows, Sudan could benefit from a more regulated water supply throughout the year.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), he said, has already demonstrated the potential of such changes in flow patterns, creating opportunities that Sudan could harness for agriculture, hydropower generation and river transportation.
Hamad said more predictable flows could improve the performance of Sudan’s existing hydropower facilities, including the Roseires and Sennar dams.
Upgrading turbines and improving operational efficiency, he noted, could enable Sudan to generate more electricity while making better use of available water resources.
He also highlighted potential benefits for Sudan’s agricultural sector, particularly through reduced pumping costs resulting from more stable river levels.
According to Hamad, raising the river level by one meter during the summer could reduce agricultural pumping costs by around 30 percent, while a two-meter increase could cut costs by approximately half.
He dismissed concerns regarding the structural safety of GERD and related infrastructure, pointing to the geological characteristics of the dam site and the engineering assessments underpinning its construction.
Hamad said the GERD site is located roughly 600 kilometers from seismic fault lines associated with the East African Rift and is founded on solid granite with substantial load-bearing capacity.
He also said engineering assessments had confirmed the structural soundness of Sudan’s Roseires Dam and its ability to safely accommodate regulated water flows.
Beyond technical considerations, Hamad called on Sudan to adopt a more strategic and institutional approach to managing its water resources.
He said uncertainty surrounding Nile water management should be replaced by stronger technical cooperation, data sharing and coordinated planning among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt.
Hamad’s assessment offers a different perspective on Ethiopia’s plans to expand hydropower generation, emphasizing that additional dams need not be viewed solely through the lens of downstream risk.
With effective coordination, a more regulated Abay could create opportunities for greater water security, expanded electricity generation, more efficient agriculture and stronger regional economic integration.
He emphasized that the future of the Nile Basin depends not simply on the infrastructure built along the river, but on how effectively the countries sharing its waters cooperate to manage the resource.