Ethiopia’s Economy Projected to Grow by 10.2% in 2025/26 Fiscal Year — PM Office

Addis Ababa, October 23, 2025 (FMC) — Ethiopia’s economy is projected to expand by 10.2 percent in the 2025/26 fiscal year (2018 Ethiopian calendar), reflecting continued resilience, strong reform momentum, and sustained growth across key sectors, according to the Office of the Prime Minister.

The projection was presented during the Council of Ministers’ 100-day macroeconomic performance review, which examined global economic trends, Ethiopia’s quarterly economic outcomes, and the nation’s medium-term growth outlook.

According to the review, Ethiopia maintained robust growth in the previous fiscal year, registering 9.2 percent GDP expansion, driven by steady gains in agriculture (7.3%), industry (13%), and services (7.5%). The country’s economic structure remains diversified, with agriculture contributing 31.3%, industry 30.2%, and services 39.6% to the national output.

Looking ahead, the 10.2 percent growth forecast for 2025/26 is underpinned by ongoing government-led reforms, rising investments, and progress in flagship development projects. The completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), along with new fertilizer production and gas development initiatives, is expected to drive industrial expansion and strengthen energy and export capacity.

The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 7.8%, supported by improved productivity and input supply, while the industrial sector is expected to increase by 13.2%, propelled by new manufacturing projects and value-chain integration. The mining sector is anticipated to exceed performance targets, while services are forecasted to grow by 9.3%, buoyed by increased trade, transport, tourism, and the expanding digital economy.

Ethiopia’s commodity exports reached 2.5 billion USD in the first quarter, surpassing both set targets and last year’s performance for the same period. The financial sector also showed strong growth, with loan disbursements up 113% compared to the same quarter last year, signaling rising private-sector activity and investment appetite.

Digital finance continues to gain momentum, with transactions worth 6.5 trillion birr recorded over the past three months. The overall review underscores Ethiopia’s accelerating progress toward structural transformation and inclusive, sustainable economic growth, positioning the nation among Africa’s fastest-growing economies.

It is to be recalled that the Council of Ministers’ macroeconomic evaluation for the first 100 days of the Ethiopian calendar year 2018 began on Thursday with a visit to the Koysha Hydroelectric Power Project.

“Since my last review, the project has shown remarkable progress, now standing 128 meters high and reaching 70% completion of civil works. This milestone stands as a testament to our continued commitment to achieving energy security,” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed disclosed after visiting Ethiopia’s second-largest hydroelectric power project on October 22.