Historic Adversaries and the TPLF Rump: How Ethiopia’s External Enemies Continue to Exploit the Discredited Group to Destabilize the Nation

Addis Ababa, July 23, 2026 (FMC) — Ethiopia’s enduring security challenges continue to be shaped by the convergence of long-standing external adversaries and their domestic collaborators, with the TPLF rump increasingly portrayed as serving the interests of forces seeking to undermine the country’s sovereignty, peace and stability.

Throughout its long history of independence, statehood and civilization, Ethiopia has faced persistent external pressure arising from its strategic geographic location, regional influence, abundant natural resources—particularly its ownership of the Abbay (Blue Nile) River—its diplomatic weight on the international stage, and its enduring status as a symbol of African independence.

These strategic realities have, over successive generations, given rise to external adversaries and domestic proxy actors whose objectives have consistently conflicted with Ethiopia’s national interests.

Many of the country’s recurring political and security challenges have emerged from the coordinated activities of these external forces and their local collaborators.

Egypt has continued pursuing policies driven by its exclusive claim over the waters of the Abbay (Blue Nile), while the Eritrean regime has sought to exploit internal political divisions surrounding Ethiopia’s legitimate quest for secure access to the Red Sea.

Both have repeatedly been accused of capitalizing on periods of domestic instability to fuel conflict and undermine #Ethiopia’s national cohesion.

Over the years, several domestic political and armed groups have aligned themselves with these external actors, receiving financial and military backing while pursuing agendas aimed at weakening the Ethiopian state.

Foremost among them is the TPLF rump, which continues to undermine the Pretoria Peace Agreement by repeatedly reviving the rhetoric of war despite the accord’s objective of restoring lasting peace.

Although the Pretoria Agreement created a valuable opportunity for peace and recovery in the Tigray region, the disfunct TPLF group subsequently dismantled the agreement’s gains by forcibly removing the legally established Interim Regional Administration and reasserting control through force.

Since then, the discredited TPLF has been accused of suppressing the population, carrying out coercive military recruitment, establishing unlawful administrative structures and tightening its grip across parts of the region, actions that critics say demonstrate its continued role in advancing the objectives of #Ethiopia’s historic adversaries.

Driven by its determination to reclaim political power and economic influence, the deregistered TPLF is also accused of pursuing policies that expose the people of Tigray to renewed suffering and instability.

Its collaboration with external actors in pursuit of another round of conflict, coupled with efforts to isolate the people of Tigray from the rest of Ethiopia, reflects what observers describe as an increasingly dangerous strategy that threatens both regional peace and national unity.

Residents of the region have repeatedly stated that the group’s actions do not represent the aspirations of the people of Tigray, while calling on the Federal Government to intervene and restore constitutional order and the rule of law.

Particular concern has also been raised over reports of forced military recruitment, including allegations that young people are being prepared for conflicts beyond Ethiopia’s borders and that underage children are being recruited into armed activities. Such practices have drawn criticism from various human rights advocates.

While the Federal Government continues to keep the door open for peaceful dialogue and negotiated solutions in the interest of #Ethiopia’s sovereignty and the long-term peace and development of the people of Tigray, the TPLF rump has continued pursuing actions that critics say undermine those efforts and threaten the country’s constitutional order.